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Is Egypt
Going To Become Pakistan?
 We
credited Pakistani analysts; commentators and anchormen with the
habit of getting carried away with lofty notions like
replication of Egyptian events in Pakistan. Now we see some
western analysts also expressing identical views. None other
than the US Vice President Joe Biden is included among them. Few
days ago, he voiced similar concerns. Can events like Cairo
repeat in Pakistan?
There is a remote possibility that Egyptian
events will repeat in Pakistan. Pakistan is not following Egypt
it is Egypt that is following Pakistan. Pakistan witnessed
similar events three years ago. Those events gave birth to
present day political set-up—a negotiated democracy.
Egyptians will get a similar set-up once they
are done with their march. Hosni Mubarak will leave, but they
will get their own Asif Zardari along with a Prime Minister like
Yousaf Reza Gilani. They will give similar run around to
Egyptians that President Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Reza
Gilani are giving to the people of Pakistan. It is not because
President Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Reza Gilani want it
so it is because of the embedded flaws of the system they agreed
to work within. That’s exactly what happens when politicians of
smaller countries compromise and settle for negotiated political
systems.
At the moment millions of Egyptians are out
on the streets in effort to overthrow Mr. Hosni Mubarak.
However, their leaders are negotiating a Pakistan like system to
replace present political dispensation in Egypt. Their euphoria
will start to dissipate once they will have to bear the results
of their struggle like Pakistanis.
Reading the signals emanating from Tunisia,
Jordan and Egypt PPP, the ruling party, has decided to dissolve
the three year old cabinet. This cabinet did not achieve much
within last three years. Their replacement Ministers will not
either achieve much in remainder of the PPP tenure.
Firstly, a few key ministers of outgoing
cabinet will remain part of the incoming cabinet. Those who are
leaving and those who remain lacked leadership guidance. The
guidance was supposed to come from Party leadership, but Mr.
Zardari, who simultaneously holds two offices, the office of the
President of Pakistan and Co-Chair of the ruling party, was
overwhelmed with the daunting events of previous three years.
Secondly, with key ministers remaining the
same the new ministers will become part of the PPP’s political
swamp. No matter how good new ministers Mr. Zardari picks with
the embedded flaws of the system nothing will be achieved by the
end of next two years. The maximum PPP will be able to boast
about in next elections would be the passage of 18th
amendment, NFC awards and inclusion of Gilgit in mainstream
political process. Electric shortages will be as bad as they
have been for the last three years. Economic down-turn will
continue. Inflationary trend will remain constant. The prices of
essential commodities will remain out of the reach of common
folks. Criminal elements will continue their activities
uninterrupted. Law and order situation will remain bleak. In
other words, nothing will change.
So instead of worrying about the repetition
of Egypt like events in Pakistan the Pakistani and international
analysts should worry about the repetition of Pakistan like
events in Egypt, which means a negotiated democracy for the poor
Egyptians—a mirror image of Pakistan—a dysfunctional government
system.
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